The main battleground in Minnesota's August 10 primary was the selection of the DFL gubernatorial candidate. After trailing House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher all evening, Mark Dayton finally gained the lead with the reporting of Northern Minnesota votes. The former senator was ultimately successful in the statewide primary by gaining the support of the Iron Range and Duluth (home of his running mate Sen. Yvonne Prettner Solon) and senior voters.
While Dayton's victory was narrow—with a 41.33 percent to 39.75 percent margin out of 7,000 votes—he captured nearly 50 percent of the rural Minnesota vote and 45 percent of the vote in precincts with high senior populations. Dayton lost the state's metro vote by solid margins; Kelliher won 55 percent of the vote in Minneapolis and took St. Paul, Edina, Minnetonka, and other key suburbs.
On the Republican side, Rep. Tom Emmer, a lawyer from Delano, won handily. Tom Horner, a founder of the prominent public relations firm Himle Horner, was declared the winner on the Independence ballot with 64 percent of the vote.
Tight Race, Historical Spending in Gubernatorial Battle
Current polls show Republican candidate Emmer and DFL candidate Dayton in a very close race at 34 percent each. Independence candidate Horner is gaining ground to garner 13 percent of the state's likely voters.
Both Emmer and Dayton must work to solidify their base voters. Polling indicates that significant numbers of Democrats are undecided in their support of the DFL's candidate, and significant numbers of Republicans are similarly undecided as to whether to support the Republican candidate. This may bode well for the Independence Party candidate Horner. It may also be an indication that Minnesota voters are just beginning to tune into the November election and the governor's race.
Dayton self-financed his 2000 Senate race by spending $12 million and spent more than $3 million to secure his win in the primary election. This governor's race is already the highest spending race Minnesota has ever seen. Third-place finisher in the DFL gubernatorial primary, Matt Entenza, spent about $5 million, mostly from his own pocket. By the time the final votes are counted, more than $20 million is likely to have been spent in the governor's race.
New Campaign Finance Rules
Corporate cash will play a role in financing campaigns in Minnesota for the first time. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled this year that laws prohibiting independent corporate contributions violate constitutionally guaranteed free speech. Under the new campaign finance rules, the pro-business group MN Forward has already received more than $1 million in corporate contributions, and expects to raise between $2 million and $5 million. MN Forward supports Tom Emmer in the governor's race and has already run a television ad in Emmer's favor. Other independent groups have run ads in support of Dayton's candidacy. Outside advocacy groups making independent expenditures could end up more than doubling what the candidates spend in the governor's race.
Where the Candidates Stand on Campaign Issues
Jobs and the Economy
Legislative candidates for both the Minnesota House and Senate are focusing on job creation. As the following quotes demonstrate, Minnesota's economy and job creation are central themes in all three campaigns for governor.
Mark Dayton: As governor, expanding our state's economy and putting unemployed Minnesotans back to work will be my top priority.
Tom Emmer: We need reform to encourage a strong business economy and create jobs. This reform needs to reach every corner of our state, into every industry and every business large and small so that we can achieve a technological, industrial, and agricultural business renaissance here in Minnesota.
Tom Horner: We need, as a state, to create jobs, to be competitive, to have strong communities. We need to keep asking the questions, ‘What's important for Minnesota to achieve?' and ‘How do we get there?"
Budget Solutions and Tax Increases
Minnesota is facing a projected $5.8 billion deficit for the 2012–2013 biennium in the 2011 legislative session. The next governor and legislature must agree on how to best balance Minnesota's budget.
Mark Dayton Proposes:
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Increase income taxes of individuals making over $130,000 per year and couples making over $150,000 per year.
- Increase property tax on "million-dollar homes."
- Eliminate of "snowbird" personal income tax loophole available to those who live more than six months outside of Minnesota.
- Increase tax compliance.
- Adopt a corporate throwback rule.
- Eliminate JOBZ program.
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Eliminate Minnesota subtraction for foreign operating companies and royalties
- Decrease spending by re-negotiating state leases, reducing private contracting, reducing state managerial personnel, requiring Department of Commerce Market Assurance Program to be self supporting, reducing excessive K-12 education testing, adopting the Education Minnesota Health Insurance Pool Bill.
Tom Emmer Proposes:
Tom Horner Proposes:
- Reduce sales tax rate by 1 percent and broaden the sales tax to include clothing and some services.
- Reduce tax expenditures.
- Increase the research and development credit and adopt a 100 percent sales basis for the corporate income tax.
- Reduce corporate tax rate by 20 percent in 2013 with further reductions into the future.
- Increase tobacco and liquor taxes.
Gaming
All three candidates support or would consider some expansion of gambling in Minnesota. Tom Horner would allow a racino—the installation of slot machines—at the state's two horse tracks. Dayton is proposing a new casino at the Mall of America or the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. While Emmer cosponsored a racino bill as a legislator, he is less enthusiastic in his support, but doesn't close the door on possible expansion of gambling.
Vikings Stadium
All three gubernatorial candidates see some role for the state in the building of a new stadium for the Vikings. The Vikings' Metrodome lease expires after the 2011 season, and the Vikings have stated repeatedly that they need a new stadium for the team to remain viable in Minnesota.
Neither Dayton or Emmer have offered specifics as to a plan to finance the new stadium or commented on whether public funds should be used to assist in the financial package. Horner has stated that he believes that the Vikings should pay 40 percent of the cost for a new stadium. He says all revenue from Vikings events should remain with the Vikings, while revenues from non-team events should be public revenues.
Bonding Bill in 2011
Dayton and Horner have both advocated for a bonding bill in the 2011 legislative session. Bonding bills are generally not taken up during the state budget setting sessions, which will be the main focus of the 2011 legislative session. However, both Dayton and Horner have suggested that a bonding bill in 2011 is important for job creation. Horner has suggested a bonding bill of $400 million, and Dayton is advocating for a bill of $1 billion dollars. Emmer has never voted for a bonding bill in his years as a legislator, but has indicated he would consider supporting such legislation for important projects.
Redesign of Government
Every candidate for office, including the three gubernatorial candidates, is calling for the redesign and reform of government.
Emmer promises an "extreme makeover" of state government—touting a plan for fewer agencies, faster permitting, and lower taxes for business. Horner makes numerous references to the "redesign" of government in his budget outline. He sees a reform of the education budget with more coordination among participants, reduction of local government mandates, less state monies, and more taxing authority. Dayton focuses his redesign initiative in the area of economic development. Dayton also states that many top state executive positions should be cut, along with many consulting contracts.
Legislative and Constitutional Officer Races
While the governor's race is the focus of most of the attention, all 201 legislative seats and constitutional officers are also up for election. During the 2010 legislative session, the House was controlled by the DFL with an 87 to 47 majority, while the Senate was under DFL control by a 46 to 21 veto-proof majority. Two-term Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty is not seeking re-election and is widely viewed as a potential 2012 presidential candidate.
The balance of the constitutional offices—with the exception of the Republican lieutenant governor—are held by the DFL. Neither of Minnesota's two DFL U.S. senators is up for election this year, while all eight congressional office holders are seeking re-election. Of these races, most of the campaign dollars and media attention has been centered around Rep. Michelle Bachmann's battle to keep her 6th congressional district from being taken by challenger Tarryl Clark, a DFL state senator and former party officer.