Window Closing to Pass Immigration Reform Legislation in 2013

Many analysts believe that a possible window for passage of immigration reform will close at the end of 2013. The topic is considered too hot to handle during 2014, an election year. The Senate has passed a comprehensive immigration bill. Although House committees have passed a few smaller bills addressing specific aspects of immigration reform, the House leadership has not announced plans to act on immigration in 2013.

With the resolution of the government shutdown and debt ceiling crises, at least for now, President Obama encouraged Congress to get back to work on other priority issues, including immigration reform. The President reiterated the arguments for comprehensive immigration reform in an October 24 speech, but recognized the political challenges:

"Now, obviously just because something is smart and fair and good for the economy and fiscally responsible and supported by business and labor, the evangelical community and many Democrats and many Republicans, that does not mean that it will actually get done. This is Washington, after all."

As previously reported, the Senate passed a comprehensive immigration reform bill in June. The House will not consider the Senate bill. House committees have passed a series of targeted bills addressing specific aspects of immigration reform. A few more bills are expected. Rep. Eric Cantor is working on a KIDS Act that would give legal status to young people brought to the U.S. illegally as children. Rep. Darrell Issa is expected to introduce a bill offering legal status to the undocumented, but only for a temporary period of six years. This is not acceptable to Democrats who want a pathway to full citizenship. Democrats, including President Obama, also oppose a piecemeal approach to immigration reform.

If the House were free to vote on a comprehensive immigration reform bill similar to the Senate bill, it's possible that such a bill could pass with the support of all House Democrats and about 20 House Republicans. But such a vote would require House Speaker John Boehner to suspend the Hastert Rule. Under the Hastert Rule, the House Republican leadership will not allow a vote on a bill unless a majority of House Republicans support the bill. A majority of House Republicans do not support legalization, so it is difficult to see how comprehensive immigration reform passes the House unless the Hastert Rule is suspended. Speaker Boehner suspended the rule recently to allow the vote to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling. Some argue that his willingness to suspend the rule for that vote makes it more likely he would suspend it for immigration. Others believe exactly the opposite, that he is less likely to suspend the rule, having just done so.

Time is running short to pass any form of immigration legislation in 2013. There are fewer than 20 House legislative days remaining in 2013, and there is no indication that the House leadership intends to use those days to pass immigration legislation.